In November the International Energy Agency (IEA) published “Recycling of Critical Minerals – Analysis and key findings.” In all, it is a rather vanilla report that is, of course, beautifully presented and will be well used. The IEA has touched on all the obvious points and done so fluently, but offers few insights or novelty.
Our take.
IEA modeling suggests the upswing in Chinese recyclable materials supply will be around 2030, but that US and European recycling urgency is >10 years later. We need to “do” the energy transition before we need to deal with the waste and have an opportunity for secondary material recovery. Until then, recyclers are dealing with manufacturers scrap. Real end-of-life EOL recycling feedstock volumes will be delayed — which is totally understandable given lagging EV sales and ESS.
IEA pessimism on primary copper supply is likely overstated. Evidence from analysts suggest there was a surge in mining of about 3% in 2024 and in smelting capacity, especially in China, which saw about 7-8% growth in smelter demand for primary concentrates (HC Group 2024). But it is interesting to see IEA’s estimate of the sharp increase in copper recycling that is possible in the next decades, that “scrap from EVs and storage is set to grow the fastest, expanding more than 35‑fold between 2030 and 2050“.
One notable observation by the IEA directly supports the objectives of the Lumet project: “Relatively slow development of midstream battery supply projects is a major uncertainty for recyclers. While battery cell production projects are expanding in regions such as Europe and the United States (US), plans for the midstream supply chain such as precursor cathode active material (pCAM) and cathode active material (CAM) remain limited. By 2030, nearly 90% of these capacities are expected to remain concentrated in China.”
Several cross-cutting issues that IEA mentions near the end of the report are interesting with respect to needed business and policy innovations. Areas like standards and traceability, for example.
Overall, the IEA report on recycling of critical materials is a good reference with fabulous graphics that will be widely disseminated and utilized. But it does not add much to our understanding or analysis of mineral and metal sustainable development.
References
International Energy Agency (IEA) 2024. “Recycling of Critical Minerals – Analysis and key findings.” https://www.iea.org/reports/recycling-of-critical-minerals
HC Group, The Metals Markets in 2024 and Beyond with David Wilson. Metals & Minerals, Podcast. 51 min. 13 November 2024. https://www.hcgroup.global/insights/hc-insider-podcast/the-metals-markets-in-2024-and-beyond-with-david-wilson